Can USF make the NCAA Tournament?

My heart says yes, my brain says maybe, and Joe Lunardi hasn't updated his "Bracketology" page on ESPN yet, so we don't know what he thinks about the Bulls yet.

The reality is that the USF Bulls might as well be called the USF Joneses, because guard Dominique Jones has been the catalyst and engine of a team that is riding a four-game winning streak that has vaulted them from 1-5 to 5-5 in the vaunted Big East conference.

Granted, role players like Jarrid Famous and Mike Mercer have been important in South Florida's surge, but when you have someone like Jones averaging 35 points per game in the past four games, there is no denying who is responsible for turning the Bulls from doormat to being a contender for the NCAA Tournament.

Let's look at USF's resume to see what their chances are of making it to the "Big Dance", shall we? Right now, the Bulls have a 15-7 overall record and a 5-5 record in the Big East, which has them in eighth place at the moment.

The NCAA always looks for trademark wins over top teams, and USF has two victories over Top 20 opponents (Pitt and Georgetown). A strong out of conference record is also important, and the Bulls are 10-2 in that department, including a nice win over Virginia, which is currently second in the ACC as of February 4. Last but not least, USF will need to go at least 4-4 in its last eight conference games before the Big East Tournament, where it will probably need to win a game or two to assure itself of a spot in the 64-team bracket.

Last year, seven teams from the Big East got bids into the tournament, so if we go by that standard then the Bulls would be on the outside looking in if the season ended today.

However...ESPN analyst Jay Bilas said that the NCAA may choose up to nine teams from the conference this year, since the Pac-10 is so god-awful and might only get one bid. That usually never happens to a major conference.

Looking at the remaining schedule, I see a win on the road over Notre Dame and wins at home over Cincy, St John's and Providence. That would bring USF to 9-9 in the conference, but what might push them over the top is the regular-season finale aganst Connecticut in Tampa.

Just thinking about the NCAA Tournament is something that nobody at USF thought was even possible just a couple of weeks ago, but now the team is on a roll and seems to be for real. Now it is up to Dominique Jones and his Joneses to convince the doubters and cement themselves in USF history with the university's first tournament bid since 1992.